As I just posted on Twitter, I am very pleased with my summer break timing. I kept almost all of this year’s profit, protected precious mental capital and recharged my batteries. The past two weeks I’ve gone through lots of charts and have rebuilt my watch list. To be more precise, I usually run a very extensive watch list containing roughly 400 stocks. Most of those are now technically broken and have accumulated serious Overhead Resistance.

In order to be successful in the markets one needs to continually adapt to change. That includes letting go of stocks and focusing on new stocks that emerge. This simply means no emotional attachment to stocks, no strong opinions and a ‘flow state of mind’ approach. Stocks that deserve my attention need to prove themselves. That means they need to pop up in my technical scans. Then they earn the right to be added to my various watch lists. The stocks that roll over, gap down hard and show lots of weakness are thrown out. No hard feelings. On to the charts:

WK – Workiva click on chart to enlarge:

WK Workiva Blue Sky Potential Stock Strong Technicals Chart With No Overhead Resistance

As you can see in my chart annotations, WK – Workiva is trading very close to its all time high. The stock is flying under the radar and is completely underfollowed. In order for the stock to develop into a big winner that obviously has to change. The odds are great though. All it would take would be an all time high close which is only cents away. The stock would then pop up in various technical scans and generate interest with technical traders.

MXL – MaxLinear click on chart to enlarge:

MXL MaxLinear Chart Is Building Up Pattern Pressure Bullish Semiconductor

The chart is building up pressure. If the market cooperates MXL looks like it could develop into a big winning stock. It keeps popping up in several of my scans. One of the most constructive and bullish semiconductor charts out there.

IPHI – Inphi click on chart to enlarge:

IPHI Inphi Huge Bullish Volume Accumulation Pattern

IPHI is displaying a consistent bullish volume accumulation pattern. There is almost no overhead resistance. If the market cooperates this is the type of set-up that could launch the stock.

Conclusion: The market environment is far from optimal. As a trader my job is to constantly monitor the market and be prepared and ready when the market again rewards aggressive trading. Technically speaking, the stocks I highlighted above are potential winners during optimal market environments. The key here is to get some exposure and see if the market rewards these test buys. If it does, I will gradually increase exposure. If it doesn’t, I decrease exposure and patiently wait for better set-ups.

The real test of a market’s weakness is not on the decline, but on the advance following the decline. – Kevin Marder


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Recently I posted a chart of the SBIO – ALPS Medical Breakthrough ETF.
Here’s my original tweet:

Here’s the chart in case you can’t see it:

SBIO ALPS Medical Breakthrough Biotech ETF Runaway Lockout Rally Bullish Technical Analysis Price Stock Chart Pattern Measuring Continuation Gap

Best-of-breed Biotech ETF is the most fitting term that comes to mind. Why? there are several reasons. The main one is the following: It was the first one to print an all time high after the June/July pullback. From a relative strength perspective it outperformed IBB and XBI the two most visible Biotech ETFs. That makes SBIO a leader. My goal is to have exposure to leaders and to avoid laggards at all cost.

Another reason why I am bullish SBIO is because you do not have single stock risk. When seeking exposure to the Biotech space this is a very valid argument. Granted, an excellent stock picker will outperform SBIO but if you have too concentrated a portfolio in the Biotech space disaster can strike. Basically SBIO allows you to really load up without having sleepless nights.

I went through every individual chart of the SBIO holdings. There are about 15 or so of the roughly 80 stocks SBIO holds I wouldn’t want to own. That’s the price you pay when you own an ETF. The real advantage though is that I can avoid analysis paralysis. Instead of torturing myself thinking about which individual Biotech stock to buy next, I can simply load up on SBIO.

I am sure this will come as a surprise but the most important factor why I really like SBIO though is a technical reason. What we recently witnessed could end up being a measuring gap or continuation gap. Novice traders and inexperienced investors most often do not participate in runaway moves or lockout rallies. Instead of going with the flow they want to be smart and are only willing to buy on a pullback. I have bad news. If this is a true momentum move within a powerful bull market this is a losing proposition because they are waiting for a pullback that never comes. True measuring gaps only get filled after the entire move has run its course.

I obviously do not advocate chasing blindly. But sometimes one has to be willing to pay up a bit. The main takeaway is that in bull markets entry opportunities that are within a normal person’s comfort zone are very rare. They do happen occasionally, but it requires you to act decidedly. In order to have great results in bull markets you simply seek maximum exposure and you show a willingness to chase a bit. Then you keep doing it until it stops working.

Click on SBIO – ALPS Medical Breakthrough ETF chart to enlarge:

SBIO ALPS Medical Breakthrough Biotech ETF Runaway Lockout Rally Bullish Technical Analysis Price Stock Chart Pattern

To make a long story short, this is about stepping outside one’s comfort zone. As a picture is often worth a thousand words here’s one I tweeted a while back. It pretty much sums up the current situation:

Leaving Your Comfort Zone Where good things magic happens

Conclusion: For good things to happen you have to be willing to leave your comfort zone.

A comfort zone is a beautiful place, but nothing ever grows there.


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India is shaping up to resume its bull market. The most natural thing to do, as I wrote in my chart annotations, is to look for the strongest stocks around. Get exposure to the best stocks. That’s how you dramatically increase your odds of profiting from a bull market that might unfold in India. Ideally the stocks you want to buy should display the following characteristics:

  • Trading at or near their All Time High
  • The chart should offer great overall pattern pressure

One stock fitting those criteria is HDB – HDFC Bank. It is highly liquid and has a 50 Billion market cap. The advantage of going with leaders is very easy to explain. If the bull market scenario is not materializing, the leaders are typically the last ones to get sold. That way one has ample time to get out without running the risk of suffering big losses.

Click on IFN – India Fund weekly chart to enlarge:

IFN India Fund Big Upside Potential Bull Market Technical Analysis Price Chart Pattern

The IFN – India Fund is in the process of building a bullish ascending triangle. If we get follow through and price subsequently breaks out to the upside, from a purely technical perspective, I see 20% upside potential within the next 6 – 9 months.

Click on HDB – HDFC Bank daily chart to enlarge:

HDB HDFC Bank Financial Stock India Big Upside Potential Bull Market Technical Analysis Price Chart Pattern

As outlined above this is my go to stock offering the highest odds for profiting from India’s bull market.

Conclusion: It’s really simple. HDB – HDFC Bank has no Overhead Resistance. Hence it is a ‘Blue Sky Potential’ stock.

HDB company description from Yahoo finance:

HDFC Bank Limited provides a range of banking and financial services to individuals and businesses in India, Bahrain, Hong Kong, and Dubai. The company operates in Treasury, Retail Banking, Wholesale Banking, and Other Banking Business segments. It accepts savings accounts, salary accounts, current accounts, fixed and recurring deposits, demat accounts, safe deposit lockers, and rural accounts, as well as offshore accounts and deposits. The company also offers personal, business, home, consumer durable, car, two wheeler, gold, educational, rural, and term loans; loans for professionals; loans against property, securities, and assets; overdrafts; government sponsored programs; and working capital, healthcare, channel, short term, structured, dealer, and vendor finance, as well as agricultural lending. In addition, it provides credit, debit, and prepaid cards; private banking services; export, import, remittance, bank guarantees, and letter of credit services, as well as merchant and cash management services; life, health, motor, travel, home, and insurance products; and investment product, such as mutual funds, equities and derivatives, IPO, gold and silver investments, and bonds. Further, the company offers bill discounting, real time gross settlement, bankers to right/public issue, forex, money market, employees trusts, and tax collection services; and investment banking services in the areas of project appraisal, structured finance, loan syndication, debt capital markets, equity placement, mergers and acquisitions, corporate advisory, and capital market advisory services. Additionally, it provides correspondent banking, settlement, custodial, disbursement, clearing, and administrative and fiduciary support services, as well as online and mobile banking services. As of March 31, 2015, the company operated a network of 4,014 branches and 11,766 ATMs in 2,464 cities/towns. HDFC Bank Limited was founded in 1994 and is based in Mumbai, India.

We’re in the business of making mistakes. Winners make small mistakes, losers make big mistakes. – Ned Davis


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A few days ago ATRA – Atara Biotherapeutics announced a private placement. The key is how a stock reacts to such news. If your goal is to reach peak performance in trading you pay attention to price and you ignore everything else. The reaction to news and the technicals is all that matters. It is all you need to know. A quick repost of my all time favourite quote that addresses this important subject:

Everything you need to know is right there in front of you. – Jesse Livermore

Here’s the chart of ATRA I posted on Twitter earlier today. It shows all the ingredients of a super winner in the making.

  • Great reaction to news.
  • Trading near its All Time High
  • Bullish overall pattern pressure

Click on ATRA chart to enlarge:

ATRA Atara Biotherapeutics Bullish Biotech Stock Trading Near All Time High Patter Pressure Technical Analysis

I used the term ‘Case Study’ in the headline. Here’s why: ATRA reminds me of a super winner of the past. ICPT – Intercept Pharmaceuticals. ATRA is displaying similar characteristics.

ICPT + ATRA Reaction to News Of Private Placement Technical Analysis Case Study Chart Pattern Pressure

As you can see in my chart annotations the reaction to news is key. ICPT shot higher immediately after the private placement was announced. It went on to become a super winner. ATRA’s reaction to its private placement strongly reminds me of ICPT.

Conclusion: Biotech is still the only game in town when it comes to producing phenomenal results. The key to success is Fishing in the right pond.

ATRA company description from Yahoo finance:

Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing therapeutics for the treatment of muscle wasting conditions and oncology. Its lead product candidate is PINTA 745, which is in a Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of protein-energy wasting in end-stage renal disease patients. The company is also developing STM 434, a targeted therapy for ovarian cancer and other solid tumors that is in a Phase I clinical trial; and a pipeline of product candidates that are in preclinical development. Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

Successful trading is about consistently doing the difficult thing so often that it becomes second nature. – Richard Weissman


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Gold miners look extremely weak here. The overall technical picture is very bearish. This is no surprise at all for those who read my website on a regular basis. The last time I wrote about Gold my highest odds proposition was for GLD to undercut the 100$ level.

In that post I used the same adage I used in my GDXJ chart annotation:

In downtrends you either short or you stand aside.

It’s really as simple as that. Forget your ego, face reality. As a trader I am not interested in being right, I am only interested in making money. Therefore my focus is on technical analysis and analyzing price charts. Everything else is noise. My job is to get rid of all distractions and to be objective.

That said, GDXJ – Junior Gold Miners ETF looks very bearish right now. If the technical picture doesn’t change significantly, the highest odds proposition is for a vicious sell-off to materialize sometime during this summer. We haven’t seen any kind of volume blow-off that would indicate capitulation. Until we don’t see that capitulation I remain bearish for the precious metals. Although I have tried to go long on a few rare occasions, RIC – Richmont Mines comes to mind, I have been predominantly bearish for several years now. I have advised to stay aside many times saying it was too early to get bullish. If you missed them, check my Past Interviews to see what I am talking about.

Click on GDXJ – Junior Gold Mining ETF chart to enlarge:

GDXJ Junior Gold Miners Mining Stocks Bearish Downtrend Technical Analysis Price Chart Target

If we get more downside confirmation i.e. if the support level indicated by the black horizontal lines finally is breached, then the downtrend channel in blue is indeed the dominant pattern. This would imply a vicious plunge towards the lower trendline of the channel in the next 2-3 months.

Conclusion: Do not try to be ‘smart’. Do not try to pick bottoms. Listen to the charts.

Sometimes you win by not losing.


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RDUS Radius Health Measuring Gap – Potential Technical Price Target 100 US Dollar

June 18, 2015

Today RDUS – Radius Health released good news and the stock gapped higher. As I outlined in my previous post Getting exposure to high quality set-ups like RDUS – Radius Health is the way to go. This simply increases the odds for good things to happen. Assuming RDUS will close strong, this will leave a strong […]

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RDUS Radius Health – Bullish Biotech Stock Chart With New All Time High

June 17, 2015

The biotech sector keeps producing big winners. KYTH – Kythera trading at new All Time Highs announces takeover. The technical set-up both KYTH and RDUS have in common is that both are trading at all time highs and offer lots of pattern pressure. Now that doesn’t mean RDUS will get taken over, but closing at a new […]

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MSCC Microsemi + KYTH Kythera Biopharmaceuticals – 2 Bullish Charts At Or Near All Time Highs

June 16, 2015

Just a quick post tonight highlighting two excellent looking charts. The first one is MSCC – Microsemi which is trading very close to its all time high. The other one is KYTH – Kythera Biopharmaceuticals which printed a new all time high today. What I like about both set-ups is that they offer a lot […]

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CLLS Cellectis Biotech Cancer Stock – Chart With Bullish Flag Pattern

June 11, 2015

Here’s a great looking Biotech chart displaying all the things I am looking for. Regular readers should know what is coming next. You guessed it. A bullish ABC pattern set-up. CLLS – Cellectis is offering a picture perfect set-up. As outlined in my chart annotations this is what the chart is offering right now: Flat […]

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UNG UGAZ Natural Gas ETFs – Potential Short Squeeze Plays

May 12, 2015

About a week ago I tweeted a monthly chart showing the UNG – Natural Gas ETF’s reversal candle and its potential for a tradable bottom: $NG_F$UNG$UGAZ Bullish monthly hammer reversal candle. — Olivier Tischendorf (@Tischendorf) May 5, 2015 For those of you who can’t see the embedded tweet, click on the UNG chart to enlarge: […]

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